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Introduction

The Infrastructure Coordination Service (ICS) at the Greater London Authority (GLA) commissioned Novaya Labs to explore whether Community Infrastructure Levy (CIL) data, along with other factors, can help predict when planning applications progress to development commencement.

The project emerged from the need to better understand the ‘certainty of development’, which directly impacts utility companies’ ability to plan capacity around projected future growth.

Challenges

The project addresses the challenge of predicting the commencement of development projects to help utility providers and local authorities plan infrastructure effectively. The uncertainty in project timelines can disrupt infrastructure planning and investment.

Solutions

To address this challenge, our project approach included four analytical stages: Data Collection and Harmonisation, Single-Factor Analysis, Data Workshop, and Multiple-Factor Analysis for hypothesis testing.

Results

Our team found that CIL relief significantly influences the probability of development commencement, with a notable increase in commencement likelihood when CIL relief is granted.

Additionally, we identified factors such as the applicant’s tenure type and chargeable area that affect commencement probability. The study also offers insights for optimising data collection processes, data quality variations among boroughs, and limited sample sizes in some Boroughs.

[…] really exciting step forward for the use of data in planning.

Novaya Labs led by the inspirational Yuriy Milevskiy explored how predictive analytics could be used […] to understand whether development was likely to proceed.

[…] predictive analytics has the potential to transform how we plan our cities…

Peter Kemp
Head of Change and Delivery, Planning at the Greater London Authority

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